You are reminded that Radio Jammor, whilst being pro-Scottish independence, is not aligned to any political party, which, as in this instance, enables us to look critically at issues without having a partisan view.
Humza Yousaf has resigned as First Minister of Scotland.
As Unionists gleefully cheer, the Scottish National Party (SNP) & Scottish Green Party (SGP) members and supporters are starting to finger-point at each other. But what are the events behind all this, and who really is to blame?
Since Nicola Sturgeon resigned and Humza Yousaf took over as First Minister, his period in the role has become one where the SNP seems to have lost its way. This may have been the situation as he inherited it, following the Supreme Court decision on Scotland’s Parliament not being able to hold an independence referendum, but the SNP has rolled-back on the idea of using the next General Election as a route to independence, leaving the movement without a means to an end. The SNP position has effectively become one of ‘keep us in place and eventually the pressure will tell’.
However, the polls have now started to show the consequence of this position. With no clear route to independence, support for the SNP has been steadily falling away. The SNP are now polling neck and neck with Labour.
Yousaf’s time as First Minister has also seen a lot of negative press (from mostly right-wing sources who are usually anti-SNP or against independence regardless) concerning e.g. the Hate Crime Bill. However, as Bella Caledonia put it in their tongue-in-cheek titled, Welcome to the New Woke Totalitarian Regime of Scotland:
In fact, all that the legislation does is add on to existing laws that have been around for years. Embarrassingly for the narrative that’s been built-up, age, disability and transgender identity have been added along with religious grounds and sexual orientation, bringing Scotland into line with *checks notes* England which have had religion and sexual orientation as crimes down south since 2006 and 2008 respectively.
Public figures and the press made a number of assertions that were subsequently debunked, but as usual, the truth or actuality came out slower than the rubbish did to start with.
There is also the ongoing saga of SNP finances, which has seen the husband to former First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and former party CEO Peter Murrell arrested for embezzlement.
On top of the bad press, this issue of climate emissions targets has proven to be a ticking bomb to the Bute House Agreement (BHA).
This has been where the real divergence has occurred. On one hand, the SNP has stated that the target is now based on what the devolved government can realistically achieve, whilst pointing out that these targets have been undermined by lack of UK government policies and funding. However, what ScotGov has done is remove one target entirely.
The SGP, and its membership in particular, argue that this target needs to stay in place in order to save the planet, even if watered down.
With SGP members wanting a debate on the future of the BHA, seeing this and a number of issues not being fully realised, affected or delayed (e.g. Deposit Return Scheme), Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater backed the agreement and said that they would resign if the membership voted it down.
The fact that there was going to be a debate and vote by the SGP on continuing with the BHA was not taken well within the SNP. Some view SGP members needing to be more realistic and pragmatic with these targets, which perhaps set them apart from the SGP politicians. Harvie had acknowledged that the targets were no longer credible in an interview and blamed all parties for this.
There was also the issue of the SNP being side-lined and not being able to take-part in the debate of their partner in coalition, a debate that would go on for some weeks and would likely see some bashing of the party in the process. Some describe this situation as untenable or unacceptable to the SNP, as also being the party seen as having its ‘tail wag the dog’. That argument does however fail to note or see that the SNP would have their own rhetoric to counter any such assertion with.
From the Green Party members point of view, one of the major reasons for this blowing up now wasn’t so much that the target needed to stay as it was, but because the particular target was ditched completely without replacement. To them, this undermined the credibility of the BHA on Green issues, as well as others.
The debate may also have been an opportunity to clarify why the climate target was removed and to inform the membership of the politics.
So here we have the chasm between the parties and their respective points of view on the climate emissions target.
With the SGP allowing a members debate to occur, the SNP, falling in the polls and with a general election near, were not prepared to wait for the outcome of the SGP debate and vote. No doubt intending damage control, by removing the need for a potentially bruising SGP debate which may have led to the SGP ending the deal themselves (which frankly, whilst possible, seems unlikely given Harvie’s and Slater’s stance and support for it), Humza Yousaf took the decision and responsibility away from the SGP and terminated it himself.
However, as damage control attempts go, this one was very much akin to throwing fuel on the fire.
On the face of it, whilst some might say this was decisive action, it was for the SGP a sudden about-turn, which can also be seen to disrespect their party’s democracy – and an action that is somewhat hypocritical given the debate about obtaining an independence referendum.
With Harvie & Slater removed from the Scottish Government with the ending of the BHA, the SNP could no longer rely on SGP votes. Feeling clearly betrayed, the SGP MSPs stated that they would be inclined to support a Conservative motion of no confidence in the First Minister. They however stood in opposition to a Labour party motion which was more to do with bringing down the Scottish Government, possibly forcing a Scottish election.
Patrick Harvie has accused Alba, and Alex Salmond in particular, of orchestrating opposition to the BHA, alongside Fergus Ewing and Douglas Ross, when speaking of this at Holyrood.
It was widely reported that Alba MSP Ash Regan, a defector to the party from the SNP, who had opposed the BHA and voted against joint bills as an SNP MSP, had made overtures to the First Minister in order to gain support from her come the vote. These were however rejected by Yousaf.
Without the support of a majority in Holyrood, the SNP lost its first battle. Indirectly acknowledging that the SNP would not get the same level of cross-party support from the SGP whilst he remained in place, Humza Yousaf chose to resign as First Minister and as SNP leader.
Whilst some are saying that the SGP vote on the BHA left the SNP with ‘no choice’ to respond as they, or the First Minister did, I feel that the wider context is important here, but also, the miscalculation as to the likely response from the SGP, about feeling betrayed, as well as from the Tories opportunistically putting up a no confidence motion, has proven to be political suicide by Humza Yousaf.
Had the SNP chosen to gamble on the SGP debate, and had it gone their way, even if there was some bruising commentary coming out of it, the end result would have been all that mattered. If it had not gone the SNP way and the SGP had ended the BHA themselves, then it would be the SGP responsible for it.
It’s very much a case of , ‘No, don’t screw us both up politically – I’ll do it instead’.
The SNP has dropped the ball on independence since the Supreme Court decision and they may be on the cusp of being hurt politically, at the ballot box, for their timidity.
As things stand, the Scottish Greens has reported a surge in their membership. With both SNP and SGP supporters currently less likely to support candidates from the other party, this is again more likely to hurt the SNP first, at a General Election where, unlike the SNP, the Greens have nothing to lose.
With factions within the SNP now coming to the public fore, this is now crunch time for the party. Either they take this situation as an opportunity to grasp the nettle and give the independence movement something tangible to support, whilst also making progress on environmental and equality issues, which their own MSPs have sometimes failed to support, or they face losing their majority of Scottish MPs.
Taking decisive action now on these issues may in turn placate not only SGP MSPs at Holyrood, but SGP supporters potentially voting for SNP candidates at the next general election, as well as independence supporters unhappy with the current stalemate and the lack of something to get behind and vote for.
If done right, the SNP may yet reverse their fortunes. If not, these party politics may scupper the independence movement for the foreseeable future.
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